Beyond Nuclear - Wall Street

A Bathtub Curve for Nuclear Accidents (compliments of David Lochbaum, Union of Concerned Scientists), so-called because of its shape. While the 1979 TMI meltdown and 1986 Chernobyl explosion were examples of "break-in phase" disasters, the 2000 Indian Point steam generator tube rupture, and the 2002 Davis-Besse reactor lid corrosion hole scandal, are examples of "break-down phase" near-misses.The Brattleboro Reformer has reported that UBS Investment Bank equity analyst Julien Dumoulin-Smith has issued a white paper concluding that it may not be in Entergy's best financial interests to continue to operate its Vermont Yankee (VY) nuclear power plant. The article reports that Entergy stock has been given a "neutral rating" by UBS; that a number of Entergy's smaller, "merchant" atomic reactors, especially VY and FitzPatrick in Upstate NY, are not likely to generate much profit in the next two years, and by 2015-2016 run projected deficits. At VY, this is due to the expiration of purchase price agreements, as well as new taxes levied by the State of Vermont (recently upheld by a federal court against a legal challenge by Entergy), which since Feb. 2010 has officially called for VY's permanent shutdown.

"How profitable is the nuclear segment? It's not very. Entergy's nuclear portfolio doesn't generate a lot of cash," said Dumoulin-Smith.

"Notably, we believe both its NY Fitzpatrick and Vermont Yankee plants are at risk of retirement given their small size," stated the report.

Other relatively small sized, single unit, "merchant" reactors owned/operated by Entergy include the problem-plagued Palisades in Michigan, and Pilgrim in Massachusetts.

Dominion Nuclear's recently announced plan to close its small, old, single unit Kewaunee atomic reactor in Wisconsin, due to "economic reasons," has led to widespread speculation about the next domino to fall. A Dominion spokesman let slip that the utility was no longer able to afford needed major safety repairs at the four decade old reactor, deep into its "break-down phase" (see "Bathtub Curve of Nuclear Accidents," referring to the graph's shape, above left, compliments of David Lochbaum, Nuclear Safety Project Director, Union of Concerned Scientists).

Kewaunee's announced closure, and the rumors at VY and FitzPatrick, comes despite the fact that the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has rubberstamped 20-year license extensions at the four decade old reactors.